Avoidable mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Colombia 2014-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To compare estimates of spatiotemporal variations of surface PM2.5 concentrations in Colombia from 2014 to 2019 derived from two global air quality models, as well as to quantify the avoidable deaths attributable to the long-term exposure to concentrations above the current and projected Colombian standard for PM2.5 annual mean at municipality level. METHODS: We retrieved PM2.5 concentrations at the surface level from the ACAG and CAMSRA global air quality models for all 1,122 municipalities, and compare 28 of them with available concentrations from monitor stations. Annual mortality data 2014-2019 by municipality of residence and pooled effect measures for total, natural and specific causes of mortality were used to calculate the number of annual avoidable deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) related to the excess of PM2.5 concentration over the current mean annual national standard of 25 µg/m3 and projected standard of 15 µg/m3. RESULTS: Compared to surface data from 28 municipalities with monitoring stations in 2019, ACAG and CAMSRA models under or overestimated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations. Estimations from ACAG model had a mean bias 1,7 µg/m3 compared to a mean bias of 4,7 µg/m3 from CAMSRA model. Using ACAG model, estimations of total nationally attributable deaths to PM2.5 exposure over 25 and 15 µg/m3 were 142 and 34,341, respectively. Cardiopulmonary diseases accounted for most of the attributable deaths due to PM2.5 excess of exposure (38%). Estimates of YPLL due to all-cause mortality for exceeding the national standard of 25 µg/m3 were 2,381 years. CONCLUSION: Comparison of two global air quality models for estimating surface PM2.5 concentrations during 2014-2019 at municipality scale in Colombia showed important differences. Avoidable deaths estimations represent the total number of deaths that could be avoided if the current and projected national standard for PM2.5 annual mean have been met, and show the health-benefit of the implementation of more restrictive air quality standards.

Well-to-wheel emissions and abatement strategies for passenger vehicles in two Latin American cities.

More stringent standards for engines and fuels are progressively implemented as alternatives to reduce on-road vehicle emissions. While electric vehicles appear as a perfect alternative since their engines do not emit pollutants, wear and dust resuspension (W&R) and indirect emissions associated with electricity production remain significant sources of pollution. This work compares well-to-wheel emissions (WTW) and abatement strategies for various types of passenger vehicles in Bogotá and Santiago for different pollutants (CO, PM2.5, SO2, and NOx) and greenhouse gases like CO2 equivalent (CO2-Eq). Results show that WTW baseline emissions are more extensive in Bogotá than in Santiago (i.e., 58 and 30% for PM2.5 and CO2-Eq), mainly due to the higher vehicle activity and older state of Bogotá's fleet. We also evaluated extreme scenarios to assess the potential of a given vehicle technology or energy source to reduce emissions. We assessed, in particular, the replacement of all current vehicles by (1) conventional technologies with stricter emission standards and (2) battery electric vehicles powered with different energy resources. Our results indicate that replacing the current fleet with modern combustion technologies has a lower reduction potential than battery electric vehicles, but these reductions largely depend on the energy mix. Substitution by electric vehicles powered with electricity from renewable energies is the most efficient scenario in both cities. Finally, results also stress the importance of the resuspension of deposited road dust and brake and tire wear emissions in both cities as a crucial source of PM2.5, which must be better controlled.

Effects of fuel change to electricity on PM2.5 local levels in the Bus Rapid Transit System of Bogota.

The TransMilenio (TM) is a transport system. Twenty-year-old TM is a fast, highly efficient, and self-sufficient mode of passenger transport. This work aims to evaluate the effects of changing current TM diesel buses by electricity-powered buses (battery, wire-based), on the PM2.5 concentrations at surface level. Emissions calculations considering combustions and resuspension of TM and Non-TM were performed. A CFD model was implemented to estimate current PM2.5 concentrations at the roadside level, and the CFD results were validated using the statistic parameters: MB, RMSE, r, and IOA. Results from the emission calculations indicate that TM buses (30-50%) are one of the main sources of primary PM2.5 in all the considered urban sites in this study. Non-exhaust emissions from most vehicle categories were also identified as an important source of primary PM2.5 (40% of total emissions). The CFD model reproduced closely the trends and levels of PM2.5 concentrations measured at the roadside level in all the locations. Replacing TM diesel vehicles with electric vehicles reduces PM2.5 concentrations between 10 and 30% according to the CFD results obtained. Higher reductions can be achieved if policies are adopted to control other types of vehicles and non-exhaust emissions since they have a contribution of about 60%. Finally, this study shows that the combined use of emission calculations and advanced near-road dispersion models are useful tools to study and manage air quality in large cities.

Exposure levels to PM2.5 and black carbon for people with disabilities in rural homes of Colombia.

Indoor exposure to air pollutants emitted by solid fuels used for cooking or heating homes remains as a problem to solve. The most affected people are newborns, mothers, children, and people with disabilities, due to the time they spend at home. This study is the first in a rural area of South America, which measures indoor air pollutants (PM2.5 and black carbon) in different environments, inhabited by people with disabilities. The research was supported through a sociodemographic characterization, a methodology useful for future studies, continuous monitoring for 72 h of pollutants, and emission sources, cooking habits, and pre-existing diseases were identified. The primary sources of emissions are improved wood-burning stoves and their chimney. In households where firewood is used, the average concentrations of PM2.5 were the highest (between 10.9 and 3302.5 µg/m3), as were the average concentrations of BC (average 72 h between 2.6 and 51.2 µg/m3) compared with the houses that use gas (average 72 h between 2.6 and 6 µg/m3). In 57% of the households visited, the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for PM2.5 (25 µg/m3 for 24 h) were exceeded. The results reveal that rural concentrations of BC can be up to 2.5 times higher than those of an urban area with high vehicular traffic and high population density and could be used to establish a baseline that allows the implementation of control mechanisms to reduce pollution of indoor air.

Air pollution, sociodemographic and health conditions effects on COVID-19 mortality in Colombia: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to determine the association between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sociodemographic aspects, and health conditions with COVID-19 mortality in Colombia. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using data at the municipality level. We used COVID-19 data obtained from government public reports up to and including July 17th, 2020. We defined PM2.5 long-term exposure as the 2014-2018 average of the estimated concentrations at municipalities obtained from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service Reanalysis (CAMSRA) model. We fitted a logit-negative binomial hurdle model for the mortality rate adjusting for sociodemographic and health conditions. RESULTS: Estimated mortality rate ratios (MRR) for long-term average PM2.5 were not statistically significant in either of the two components of the hurdle model (i.e., the likelihood of reporting at least one death or the count of fatal cases). We found that having 10% or more of the population over 65 years of age (MRR = 3.91 95%CI 2.24-6.81), the poverty index (MRR = 1.03 95%CI 1.01-1.05), and the prevalence of hypertension over 6% (MRR = 1.32 95%CI1.03-1.68) are the main factors associated with death rate at the municipality level. Having higher hospital beds capacity is inversely correlated to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality rate at the municipality level in Colombia. Demographics, health system capacity, and social conditions did have evidence of an ecological effect on COVID-19 mortality. The use of model-based estimations of long-term PM2.5 exposure includes an undetermined level of uncertainty in the results, and therefore they should be interpreted as preliminary evidence.

Implementation and evaluation of WRF simulation over a city with complex terrain using Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography.

Air quality modeling requires an accurate representation of meteorology, and in cities with complex topography, the performance of meteorological modeling can be improved by using an alternative global digital elevation model (GDEM) such as Alos-Palsar 0.4 s instead of the default elevation data. Bogotá is a city with complex topography geographically located over the Andes Mountains at 2600 m.a.s.l. A reliable meteorological simulation model is critical for performing a suitable air quality modeling in any case of study. Previous researches have been developed using the standard Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) topography (GTOPO 30 s). These studies have been developed with different configurations for the representation of meteorology. The aim of this study is to evaluate Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography with WRF, and two domain configurations with horizontal spatial resolutions up to 1000 m, to establish a reliable and accurate way to simulate the meteorology in the city of Bogotá. The evaluation quantitative parameters: IOA, r (Pearson), RMSE, MGE, and MB were calculated for the quantitative evaluation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar radiation. An additional evaluation using Taylor diagrams was performed. Spatial differences were identified in the same locations as well the differences between the elevation from Alos-Palsar 0.4 s and GTOPO30. The results and evaluation suggest that simulations based on Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography lead to a significant improvement in the meteorology representation by WRF in a region with complex topography such as Bogotá, Colombia.